The global wine market in 2010
Prognoses about the economic health of wine companies must focus on the potential and opportunties for export.
This is because in nearly all wine producing countries, with the notable exceptions of the USA and Australia, per capita wine consumption is decreasing.
Most producers will start to commercialise their 2009 harvest in 2010, even if not sending out the actual bottles of wine, apart from Prosecco which is always precociously sold the year of its harvest. The quality in Europe looks promising. Harvests for 2009 push France once again into the top spot as the world’s top producer with 48,1miohl (an improvement of 12% over 2008 which was particularly low yielding).
According to recent estimates Italian wine production is estimated at 46,5miohl for 2009 harvest. Spain will likely be in 3rd place, with a volume around 39,9miohl.
Climate change may bring some positive effects for producers in the short term and certainly the Champenois, for example, are sangine on the issue of global warming despite recent figures showing a catastrophic collapse of Champagne sales worldwide — a 30% decline year on year ((CIVC Figures to July 2009)). One would expect these to improve in 2010 along with the economic fortunes of its importers.
The CIA World Fact Book lists countries in order of their GDP real growth rate. Three of the largest countries performing best in 2008, China (16), India (18) and Russia (69) offer increasing opportunities for wine exporters. However, the recent recession has demonstrated the fragility of these as importer partners (viz. Champagne). Nonetheless, particularly where blue chip wines are concerned, China has become a major force with many of the larger international auction houses and brokers turning their attention on Hong Kong. This will likely continue through 2010.
Italy is and will probably remain the highest exporter of wine worldwide in 2010. This is linked to a number of factors not least of which are the diversity, quality and innovative approach of the country’s winemakers. France may well continue to lose ground (in volume terms) but it is still the number one exporter worldwide for premium wines, a position it is unlikely to lose in the forseeable future. However, both South America (Argentina and Chile) and the USA are likely to increase market share in the future.
Sources: OIV, ISMEA, finewinejournal.com, MPRA, CIVC, CIA World FactBook.
Tables
Estimated vineyard coverage for 2008 (mha):
Spain 1165
France 852
Italy 840
USA 411
Portugal 250
Argentina 225
Romania 201
Chile 198
Australia 173
South Africa 132
Greece 116
Germany 102
Brazil 100
Bulgaria 95
Russia 75
Hungary72
Austria 51
New-Zealand 35
Switzerland 15
Source: OIV
Wine production forecasts for 2008 in miohl
Italy 48,633
France 41,429
Spain 34,630
USA 19,200
Argentina 14,677
Australia 12,365
South Africa 10,261
Germany 10,400
Chile 8,683
Russia 7,110
Portugal 5,596
Greece 3,800
Brazil 3,500
Austria 2,922
NZ 2,052
Switzerland 1,073
Source: OIV
Largest wine exporting countries based on current information:
Italy 19% (17,2 miohl)
Spain 19% (16,5miohl)
France 15% (13,6miohl)
South America 11% (10,00miohl)
Oceania 9% (7,2miohl)
USA 5% (4,5miohl)
Germany 4% (3,6miohl)
South Africa 5,6% (4,1miohl)
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